Input variables of the deterministic and probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis
| Input variable | Likeliest | (Low–high) | Probability distribution | Source |
| Costs of management of VL (US$) | ||||
| Cost of VL diagnosis | ||||
| BM cost (95% CI) | 21.40 | (17.41 to 25.79) | γ | 6 32 |
| Serology cost (95% CI) | 11.77 | (9.58 to 14.19) | γ | 6 |
| RDT cost (min–max) | 1.10 | (1.00 to 2.20) | Triangular asymmetrical | Ruiz-Postigo (personal communication),33 34 |
| Cost of VL treatment (min–max) | ||||
| SB price | 1.70 | (1.20 to 3.40) | Triangular asymmetrical | 5 6 35 |
| L-AmB 50 mg/phial price | 165.12 | (150.00 to 230.00) | Triangular asymmetrical | 23 |
| Rest of cost per hospitalisation day (IQR) | ||||
| Hospitalisation day | 29.45 | (19.00 to 37.00) | γ | 6 |
| Days at the hospital (days—IQR) | ||||
| Before diagnosis BM | 2.00 | (1.00 to 6.00) | Log-normal | 6 |
| Before diagnosis RDT | 1.00 | (0.00 to 2.00) | Log-normal | 6 |
| After diagnosis SB | 20.00 | (12.00 to 31.00) | γ | 6 |
| After diagnosis 6-day course L-AmB | 10.00 | (7.28 to 13.15) | γ | 6 |
| After diagnosis 2-day course L-AmB | 2.00 | (1.46 to 2.63) | γ | 6 |
| Treatment courses (days) | ||||
| SB | 20.00 | Point estimate | 5 | |
| Six-day course L-AmB | 6.00 | Point estimate | 21 | |
| Two-day course L-AmB | 2.00 | Point estimate | 17 24 | |
| Epidemiology (95% CI) | ||||
| VL prevalence over VL suspects | 0.7346 | (0.6126 to 0.9177) | β | 6 |
| Treatment outcome probabilities | ||||
| Meglumine antimoniate (Glucantime) 20 mg/kg/day (95% CI) | ||||
| CFR SB | 0.0581 | (0.0416 to 0.0772) | β | 9–17 |
| Relapse SB | 0.0460 | (0.0137 to 0.0964) | β | 14 16 17 27 |
| Cure rate SB | 0.8959 | (0.8745 to 0.9156) | β | 3 9 11 13–17 28 |
| Six-day course L-AmB (Ambisome) 3 mg/kg/day (95% CI) | ||||
| CFR 6-day course L-AmB | 0.0076 | (0.0069 to 0.0084) | β | 17 20–23 30 |
| Relapse 6-day course L-AmB | 0.0418 | (0.0322 to 0.0526) | β | 17 20–23 30 |
| Cure rate 6-day course L-AmB | 0.9506 | (0.9375 to 0.9622) | β | 17 20–24 29 30 |
| Two-day course L-AmB (Ambisome) 10 mg/kg/day (95% CI) | ||||
| CFR 2-day course L-AmB | 0.0001 | (0.0000 to 0.0004) | β | 17 23 |
| Relapse 2-day course L-AmB | 0.0227 | (0.0185 to 0.0274) | β | 17 23 |
| Cure rate 2-day course L-AmB | 0.9772 | (0.9545 to 0.9922) | β | 17 23 24 29 |
| Diagnostic outcome probabilities (95% CI) | ||||
| BM sensitivity | 0.7700 | (0.7150 to 0.8150) | β | 8 |
| BM specificity | 0.9900 | (0.9400 to 0.9970) | β | 8 |
| RDT sensitivity | 0.8320 | (0.7410 to 0.9010) | β | Cruz (unpublished) |
| RDT specificity | 0.9980 | (0.9900 to 1.0000) | β | Cruz (unpublished) |
| Macroeconomic (min–max) | ||||
| Discount rate | 3.00% | (0.00% to 5.00%) | Point estimate | 6 |
BM, bone marrow and microscopy; CFR, case fatality rate; L-AmB, liposomal amphotericin B; RDT, rapid diagnostic test; SB, meglumine antimoniate; VL, visceral leishmaniasis.